Greece Prediction by Wolfgang Munchau

On July 20, the same day that Greek banks reopened after a three-week bank holiday, the Financial Times published the following article by Wolgang Munchau. (I had previously provided a timeline of events in Greece; please scroll down past the halfway mark ...)

Highlights from the article are as follows.

• "Grexit remains the most likely ultimate outcome after all.

• There are three principal ways in which this can happen.

1. The first is that a deal [between Greece and its creditors] is simply not concluded.
2. A more likely Grexit scenario is that a programme is agreed and then fails.
3. The most probable scenario ... is Grexit through insurrection.

• Greece is not quite at the point of insurrection yet — despite eight years of recession. 

• If Syriza fails to deliver, ... the Greeks will have no democratic choices left."

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Wolfgang Munchau is the director of Eurointelligence.com, a specialist service for economic news and analysis of the euro area.  He is also on Twitter and writes for the Financial Times.

Author is also on Twitter.